Civil aviation recovery will be U-shaped: Poll

The aviation determination was flourishing fuelled by global economic growth and business and leisure take before the COVID-19 pandemic. The coronavirus outbreak, however, brought the pandemic aviation industry to a grinding halt as countries closed borders and the meanwhile closed their skies for international air passengers.

More than 70% of worldwide aviation fleet is grounded due to the coronavirus outbreak measures implemented worldwide.

Aviation cracks note that the industry may take up to five years to return to levels witnessed previous COVID-19, as quoted by Airbus.

Verdict has conducted a poll to assess whether the rally of civil aviation will be V, U or L-shaped, when it recovers.

Analysis of the poll results shows that the retrieval could be U-shaped as opined by a majority 45% of the poll respondents.

While 28% of the respondents endorsed that the recovery would be L-shaped, a similar number of 27% have compassion for incline the recovery would be V-shaped.

Civil aviation recovery

The analysis is based on 361 responses notified of to a poll completed by readers of Verdict’s Aerospace Technology site between 04 May and 18 June.

Commercial aerospace to use up a decade of air passenger growth

Passenger demand in the second quarter of 2020 fell as restrictions due to COVID-19 led to the shutdown of domestic and international travel. Demand deteriorated drastically in April by 94.3%, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), in the largest continuously dip in the last 30 years.

Commercial aerospace is projected to lose at particle a decade of air passenger growth, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics provider.

Air traveller traffic is projected to decline by anywhere from 46% to 62% in 2020, according to the Intercontinental Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Further, airlines are expected to trifle away between $289bn and $387bn in potential operating revenues in 2020.

Aviation salvage may not be quick: GlobalData

Considering the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic, the industry may not be undergoing a quick or V-shaped recovery, according to GlobalData.

The most likely fashion for recovery of the aviation industry is expected to be a prolonged U-shaped recovery, agreeing to the IATA.

Domestic travel is expected to return to normal faster than universal. Government support and tax reliefs for airlines would play a key role in the retrieval of the industry.

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