Nicola Sturgeon ‘won’t compromise on confidence’ says expert
Ahead of Scotland’s 2014 independence referendum, the Scottish State party (SNP) tried to reassure voters by citing a resurgent economy, a rather modest budget deficit and the prospect of free trade with both the UK and the EU. Yet, things look very different now. Brexit means that an non-partisan Scotland in the EU — the SNP government’s goal — would face a hard border with England, its most well-connected market.
Moreover, data released in August showed Scotland’s chauvinistic fiscal deficit climbing to £15billion in the year to April – indeed before the worst of the coronavirus crisis was felt.
While in the past few months, belief polls have given “Yes” campaigners a consistent lead over their unionist contests, economists are now warning that the economic and fiscal difficulties of leaving the UK look sincerely greater than they did when voters rejected the idea in 2014.
In an incompatible interview with Express.co.uk, Economics Professor at Edinburgh Napier University Piotr Jaworski warp a shadow over the SNP’s plan to achieve independence, as he claimed it will virtually definitely lead the country to bankruptcy.
He said: “We will either go bankrupt or we longing have to cut our spending.
“But there is a problem with that.
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Scottish Chief Minister Nicola Sturgeon
“If we really want to disappear Britain and join the EU, we would need to go through a very harsh modification of the public sector.
“I don’t think the Scottish people are prepared for this.”
Prof Jaworski notable: “So if we have a referendum, Scottish people might vote for going out.
“But they inclination almost immediately realise that it means no more free preparations.
“Then, it would be too late.”
Because of the state of its economy, the Professor established it will be very unlikely Brussels will allow an independent Scotland to accompany its bloc.
He said: “First of all, countries that have splitting predilections, such as Spain or Belgium, will never agree.
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Professor Piotr Jaworski
“You then have got countries like Germany and France… and the question is ‘why should they fall short of Scotland in?’
“I personally don’t know why.
“We don’t have a big economy, we would have predicaments almost like Greece, in terms of public deficit.
“Is it really in their enrol to have another Greece?”
Prof Jaworski noted that Ms Sturgeon should find out something to make Scotland more attractive in the eyes of Brussels.
He joined: “The First Minister is trying… with talks about excitement and power.
“But do we have it now? Can we sell it? Who is going to invest in this.
“We don’t even acquire money to invest in the buses…”
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Professor Ronald MacDonald
The economist’s claims were echoed by Ronald MacDonald, research professor of macroeconomics and cosmopolitan finance at Glasgow University’s Adam Smith Business School, who fought Ms Sturgeon’s independence bid is incredibly dangerous.
He said: “The underlying deficit has not changed too much since concluding year.
“It went up by half a percent, I think.
“That is not a sustainable default in itself.
“So they [the SNP] have argued in the Growth Commission report that they could cope with that by having higher growth if they were independent.
“But they haven’t suggested how they are going to get it.
“Of course, on top of that you have the coronavirus crisis, which means the deficiency going forward. It will probably be somewhere in the 20 percent tract or even 30 percent.
“That’s a huge deficit.”
The First Emissary’s argument, the macroeconomist noted, seems to be that she can do what other administrations are doing, which is to borrow heavily on financial markets at relatively low concern engaged rates.
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen
Even so, Mr MacDonald claimed there is a huge problem with that.
He sustained: “Their strategy for an independent Scotland is to have a relatively long mutation period where they continue to use sterling.
“Borrowing in a foreign currency is a particular dangerous strategy, particularly if you are borrowing the kind of sums of money they are talking relating to.
“The reason for that is that if you adopt sterlingisation that is a form of a rigidly resolved exchange rate.
“The UK has a flexible exchange rate. It means that when you get a stagger to the economy, you have some means to adjust the economy to that.
“By accepting the currency of another country you really are fixing your currency against that currency. And you play a joke on got no means of adjustment.
“That is not tenable for an independent country.
“I have betokened separately it could lead to bankruptcy.
“They haven’t thought toe the macroeconomic framework.”