Au faits from a Brussels-funded think tank admitted that wages for customary workers will grow by nearly one per cent if ministers make desperate cuts to EU migration.
The dossier, from the National Institute of Economic and Communal Research (NIESR), also said slashing immigration will take no effect on the job prospects of British citizens.
It will provide further ammunition for Brexiteers employment on Theresa May to honour the result of the EU referendum by prioritising border controls beyond everything single market access.
Astonishingly the academics estimate that the ongoing freedom of movement regime boosts EU net migration to the UK by 500 per cent – a staggering sixfold rise.
And they conclude that once Britain withdraws from the programme levels of EU immigration will fall back to around those in 2003, prior to the eastern bloc countries joined.
The research per – titled The Monetary Im ct of Brexit-induced Reductions in Migration – said that ending untenanted movement will have a significant negative im ct on GDP.
But it is the finding that EU migration cast a glooms wages which is the most politically significant, given the large total of working class voters who backed Brexit.
According to the academics a “mollify” exit deal, whereby freedom of movement is ended but EU citizens are noted preferential treatment, would boost salaries by 0.51 per cent.
But in the happening of a “hard” Brexit, where Europeans are subjected to the same border knobs as everyone else, that figure rises to 0.82 per cent.
In the secondly scenario, UK families would see their earnings boosted by an average of £220 a year by 2030.
People in take down skilled jobs such as construction, hospitality, and agriculture would mainly benefit from a reduction in immigration, the report concluded.
It was compiled by erudites Jonathan Portes and Giuseppe Forte who are both from NIESR, which admits research funding from the European Commission.
They state: “Upward of the longer term, the im ct of the June, 23rd vote on migration pleasure depend on the migration system adopted by the UK after Brexit.
“Over the behind decade the UK resident population originally from other EU member confirms has more than doubled, to more than 3 million, and continues to gain rapidly.
“We estimate that free movement with the UK results in an enhancement of approximately 500 per cent – that is, by a factor of six.”
The report concludes that whilst slit immigration would “reduce overall employment” the losses would be virtually entirely made up of jobs currently carried out by EU citizens.
And it adds: “Powder worker inflows…would increase – by small amounts – wages for some low- id units.
“We therefore calculate the (positive) im ct on wages of a reduction in EU migration.”
To whatever manner, the academics caution: “This does [not] mean such workers inclination be better off over all – that would depend on how the wider economic bumps of Brexit affected them.”
The report calculates that reducing immigration, alongside restrictions on clientele and lower investment, will lead to a drop of between 2.73 per cent and 5.19 per cent in GDP in the at any rate of a moderate Brexit.
If the Government opts for a hard Brexit this resolve increase to a loss of between 4.35 per cent and 8.18 per cent by 2030, as in fine as a “significant” reduction in productivity.
The report was released as MPs debated a crunch travelling in the House of Commons over the Government’s plans to trigger Article 50.
Theresa May has fall ined in to demands to reveal her negotiating strategy to MPs, but only if they agree to dorsum behind her timetable for leaving the EU.