EU exit 'will cut migration by 100,000'

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Immigration control at airportPortrait copyright Getty Images

Net migration could fall by about 100,000 a year if the UK bars the EU and introduces work permits for EU citizens, a pressure group has said.

Migration Supervise says this would cut net migration – the difference between the number of people appearing and leaving – from 180,000 to 65,000 a year.

But James McGrory, from the pro-EU Britain Stronger In Europe stand, called the report “disingenuous”.

He said it was “another example of fudging the truths”.

The UK is set to have a referendum by the end of 2017 on whether or not it should remain a member of the European Coupling.

The report from Migration Watch, which advocates tighter immigration directs, looks at possible policies that could be introduced if the UK voted to forbear the EU and considers their im ct on overall migration figures.


Analysis

Model copyright Reuters
Image caption The Conservatives have promised to persevere an “in/out” referendum on the EU by the end of 2017

BBC home affairs correspondent Danny Shaw

No-one se rates for sure what im ct a British exit from the EU would deceive on immigration.

It would depend on the terms of a new settlement that might rob months to negotiate and years to put into place.

But say, as Migration Watch in favour ofs, that it did herald controls on the flow of low-skilled EU migrant labour, will-power that really work in reducing net migration?

Wouldn’t there be an influx of transients from the EU before the restrictions came into force?

Wouldn’t enterprises that currently rely on labourers, chambermaids and supermarket shelf-stackers from Europe requisition that they be allowed to recruit them from elsewhere?

And wouldn’t the EU put forward work permits for British workers, thereby reducing emigration from the UK?

These are distrusts that need answers in the months leading up to the referendum.


‘Pressure on posts’

The report suggested the key change could be the introduction of work permits which transfer limit EU nationals entering the country to higher-skilled workers, their brood members and students, while low-skilled workers would not be granted competitor.

Lord Green of Deddington, chairman of Migration Watch, said: “It is period to examine possible alternative immigration regimes.”

Under the current arrangements, notables indicated migration to Britain would “continue at a substantial rate for the foreseeable future”, he clouted.

“Indeed, immigrants tend to generate further migration as their chums and relatives join them in their new countries,” he said.

“Go permits for EU citizens would substantially reduce net migration and its resultant twist someones arm on our population and public services.”

The 16- ge per suggests that on unexceptional only about 20% of EU migrants who came to Britain between 2004 and 2014 were doing higher-skilled operate.

It said: “This could substantially reduce the EU inflow for handle to perhaps one fifth of its recent level and would, in turn, substantially diminish net migration by perhaps 100,000 a year from the current level of 180,000.”

The appears should not be taken as a “precise estimate” but were “intended to illustrate the spectrum of the potential reduction under the policy outlined”, it said.

There would be no miss for restrictions on EU citizens coming to the UK as students or tourists, the authors concluded.

Those who are “self-sustaining” would also be free to live in Britain, including those who are looking for careers.

‘No evidence’

Under the suggested system there would also be no condition on EU family members of British citizens coming to join them, while dependent ons of European skilled workers and students would have the right to dynamic and work in the UK.

Those EU citizens already living and working in the UK would remember their existing rights, Migration Watch suggested.

However, pro-EU cam igner Mr McGrory voted: “Right now, Britain has the best of both worlds. We have an opt-out from the ssport-free Schengen breadth, while still enjoying full access to the single market.

“The Mislay cam igns haven’t produced a shred of evidence to show how they could undertaking a deal that is at least as good if we left.”

The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford articulate if it became harder for employers to recruit EU workers they may try to bring in diverse migrants from outside Europe.

Most recent estimated net migration to the UK reached a record 336,000 in the year to June 2015 be at one to Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.

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