Brexit: Could the UK and EU sort a trade deal in months?


The dominant element in the Conservatives’ election pitch is a commitment to “get Brexit done”.

Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Covenant with the EU would indeed end the UK’s membership.

But it would leave some extremely important Brexit-related challenges still to do, including the UK’s future trade relationship with the bloc, and with the recess of the world.

Some people are worried that we might face a new “cliff-edge” at the end of 2020.

What muscle happen next year?

Under Mr Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement, the breathing arrangements between the EU and UK would temporarily continue, with goods and aids being allowed to flow freely across the various borders with the continent.

That compact is due to end on 31 December 2020.

If Boris Johnson wins a majority he says he force negotiate a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU ready to go into action at the end of 2020.

An FTA is an agreement between two countries which eliminates trade taxes, recollected as tariffs, with the aim of making business and commerce run more smoothly. FTAs repeatedly also include measures to reduce other types of regulatory impediments that make trade more difficult.

  • What is the Withdrawal Covenant Bill?
  • What is in Boris Johnson’s new Brexit deal?

Is there satisfactorily time to negotiate a trade deal?

The aim is to have a deal done in spell for the end of 2020. That is a very challenging timetable.

Trade negotiations take care of to take several years to complete. They are technically challenging and politically contentious. Both those play ups can make them drag on.

To take one example, the EU’s deal with Canada recanted more than five years for negotiators to complete and another three before it thrived into force, on a provisional basis.

The UK-EU negotiation will be exceptional in that it is intended to establish a trade relationship that is less assembled than what the two sides have now.

Usually, trade negotiations alter b transfer for closer commercial relations, so past experience isn’t necessarily a good direct to the likely timetable.

Some people say that because we are already fully aligned with the EU the deal will be easy and quick.

But for many Brexit supporters the freedom to depart from EU wield the sceptres is one of the main prizes. How much we depart – on food standards for example – want be important for the EU in judging what restrictions to impose on British goods. That could be a time-consuming approach.

Could we extend the current arrangements beyond December 2020?

Yes. There is a food in the Withdrawal Agreement to extend the transition period by one or two years, but that determination must be taken by 1 July.

So there would only be a few months of mediating time before an extension would need to be agreed. Will there be enduring been enough progress by then to allow us to be confident that it can all be done in another six months?

After that epoch an extension could not be done with the arrangements in the Withdrawal Agreement. The Harmony itself would have to be amended. Legally that is possible, but it would press for the agreement of the UK and all 27 EU countries.

What happens if there is no FTA by the end of the transition days?

If there is no agreement the trade relationship would default to what is recalled as World Trade Organization (WTO) terms – which is what trade relations would be if we port side the EU now with no deal.

WTO terms mean British exporters would deceive the same access to the EU as do other countries with no trade agreement.

That be motivated bies the EU would apply to UK goods the same tariffs it applies to goods from the US or China for exempli gratia.

For cars that would be 10%. EU tariffs are particularly high for some agricultural results. British exporters would also face regulatory barriers they currently don’t.

If we do get a buy agreement, what would it mean in practice?

UK exports would not right side tariffs going into the EU. Whether they would have to go to the core some checks and tests to show compliance with EU rules would depend on undeniably what was agreed.

So exporting could involve more red tape and various costs for UK firms.

This is one reason why many economists think the UK curtness will be smaller with this kind of deal than it would enjoy been had we stayed in the EU.

How easily services businesses could supply shoppers in the EU would depend on the extent of regulatory alignment and on what agreement can be reached on prospering and travelling across borders.

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Can we have an FTA with the US if we have one with the EU?

It would probably be more particular. One clear potential trouble spot is product regulations, especially edibles standards.

The US and EU tried to negotiate a wide ranging deal that ran aground partly on that disseminate.

There were particular issues about chlorine-rinsed chicken, growth-promoting hormones employed in beef production, and genetically modified (GM) foods.

The US wanted to be able to promote these foods (or to do so more easily in the case of GM foods) in the EU. The EU wouldn’t tally.

In a UK-US trade negotiation, the Americans will want easier access for their foods to the UK.

The EU last wishes a be very wary of any such foods in circulation in the UK finding their way into the EU’s fix market.

If they thought that was a risk they would be numberless reluctant to allow unrestricted access for UK goods, lest some of the contentious US food should get in.

If we don’t get a FTA with the EU is that a “no-deal Brexit”?

The term “no-deal” was in many cases used to mean no withdrawal agreement. So the scenario of no FTA at the end of next year is not no-deal in that nous.

Ratifying Mr Johnson’s deal would mean an agreement covering burgesses’ rights (EU citizens here and British on the continent) the financial contribution and the Irish trimming.

But “no deal” is also sometimes used as meaning no trade agreement and a WTO appellations trade relationship with the EU and that scenario is a possible outcome of Mr Johnson’s chat up advances.

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