Boris Johnson has notified the UK has a “long, long way to go” before the economy improves, after official take into considerations showed the largest drop in employment in over a decade.
“Clearly there are prospering to be bumpy months ahead and a long, long way to go,” the Prime Minister said.
After all, he said parts of the economy were “showing great resilience”.
Between April and June, the army of people in work fell by 220,000, the Office for National Statistics communicated.
The drop in the number of people employed was the largest quarterly decrease since May to July 2009, the strengths of the financial crisis.
Mr Johnson said he had “absolutely no doubt” that regime schemes would “help this country get through it”, adding: “it last wishes as get through it stronger than ever before”.
The youngest workers, oldest hands and those in manual occupations were the worst hit during the pandemic, the ONS go on increased.
The figures do not include the millions of people who are furloughed, those on zero-hours obligations but not getting shifts, or people on temporary unpaid leave from a job, as they pacific count as employed.
As such, they do not capture the full impact of the pandemic. Similarly, the UK unemployment calculate was estimated at 3.9%, largely unchanged on the year and the previous quarter.
Jonathan Athow, ambassador national statistician at the ONS, said: “The groups of people most affected are younger proletarians, 24 and under, or older workers and those in more routine or doll-sized skilled jobs.
“This is concerning, as it’s harder for these groups to descry a new job or get into a job as easily as other workers.”
How bad is this likely to get?
The UK economy has been bashed by the coronavirus pandemic, but unemployment has not surged as much as feared because immense numbers of firms have furloughed staff.
However, analysts denoted unemployment was set to worsen in coming months as the scheme wound down, example of a looming “cliff-edge” and a “lull before the storm”.
From restaurants to retailers, innumerable UK businesses are already planning job cuts with 140,000 redundancies circulated in June alone.
According to the ONS, the number of average hours worked keep oned to fall in April-June, reaching record lows both on the year and on the neighbourhood.
The number of people claiming universal credit – a benefit for those on low pay as unquestionably as unemployed people – rose to 2.7 million in July, up by 117% since Walk.
How are ordinary people coping?
Theatre technician Charlotte Baker, 29, is out of masterpiece as a result of the coronavirus crisis.
She started a new job at the Fairfield Halls in Croydon in September conclusive year and was furloughed in March.
In June, she was made redundant, even be that as it may she could have been kept on furlough.
Now management at the Fairfield Vestibules has said the venue will not reopen until April next year, compelling her to contemplate a possible career change.
“It’s definitely an uphill struggle and it’s try harder than previous ones,” she told the BBC. “It’s hard to have a pragmatical outlook.”
Charlotte has been looking into doing a carpentry no doubt, but to obtain the necessary City and Guilds qualification would require her to shell out £5,000 on training.
“It’s a mountain to climb. I wouldn’t mind climbing that mountain if it’s something that I’m eager about, but I’m not sure,” she says.
“I’m hoping to make a decision by the end of August.”
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How is this swaying people who still have jobs?
Between April and June there were takings in pay for those still working, with regular pay levels down 0.2% compared with a year earlier – the start with negative pay growth since records began in 2001.
The number of people on zero-hours obligations also increased to more than one million.
“Early indicators for July 2020 advance that the number of employees in the UK on payrolls is down around 730,000 compared with Strut 2020,” said the ONS.
It believes the main reason this is more bounds than the fall in employment is because of workers who have a job but are not doing any pay out work at the moment.
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It added that a large number of living soul were estimated to be temporarily away from work, including furloughed craftsmen – approximately 7.5 million in June 2020, with more than three million of these being away for three months or multifarious.
The number of workers covered by the furlough scheme has since risen to 9.6 million by 9 August, and has yet to memorandum a fall in any week since it began, separate statistics published on Tuesday by HM Interest and Customs show.
The ONS said there had also been a sharp capture in the number of self-employed people between April and June.
It said there were 4.76 million self-employed woman, 14.5% of all people in employment, a record 238,000 fewer than the above quarter.
Is it all bad news?
If you’re a glass-half-full sort of person, there is some less than horrific news in the latest labour market figures.
The number of vacancies, for specimen, rose from its record low by 10% in May to July as lockdown restrictions were assisted. The number of hours worked saw a record drop in the second quarter from April to June, but in July it was down by not 3%, less than half the fall in May and June.
However, there are some paltry jolly signs. The number on employer payrolls had only dropped marginally in the above two months, but saw a much bigger drop in July, down 114,000, in animosity of the reopening of many shops, restaurants and pubs.
And employers are increasingly fleeing employees bear the risk that there isn’t enough work for them to do, with the calculate of zero-hours contracts rising above one million for the first time.
And then there’s the sub rosa drop in self-employment. And all this in spite of the government spending more than £40bn disquieting to protect employment through furlough and self-employed income support.
Unemployment serves to peak well after economic shocks have been and peed: this time will be no different.
What are economists saying?
Ruth Gregory, elder UK economist at Capital Economics, said the latest employment figures were “the silence before the storm”.
She added: “The cracks evident in the latest batch of distressed by market data are likely to soon turn into a chasm, with the unemployment in any event rising from 3.9% to around 7% by mid-2021.”
She said what is more rises in unemployment in the coming months were “all but inevitable as the furlough cook up unwinds”.
Capital Economics forecasts that the unemployment rate transfer peak at 7% in mid-2021 and remain above its pre-pandemic constant of 4% until the end of 2022.
Ms Gregory said this suggested that the profitable recovery would be “slow going”.
UK employment falls by biggest amount in a decade
Jeremy Thomson-Cook, chief economist at Equals The ready, said the figures showed the true level of those out of work had been “entirely effectively lowered by the government’s furlough scheme” and that the worst lay in front.
“Unfortunately, the end of the furlough scheme will present a cliff-edge, statistically and economically, for those currently relying on sway support to make up their wages.”
What’s the political reaction?
Chancellor Rishi Sunak rephrased the figures showed that the government’s “unprecedented support measures” were be employed to “safeguard millions of jobs and livelihoods that could otherwise must been lost”.
Shadow work and pensions secretary Jonathan Reynolds predicted it was “extremely worrying” that older workers, the self-employed and part-time workmen had been hit hardest.
“Labour has repeatedly warned the government their one-size-fits-all entry will lead to job losses. These figures confirm what we feared – Britain is in the centre of a jobs crisis.”
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