Pound v US dollar: GBP could surge against USD on Fed rate decision

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GBP/USD dropped to a low of $1.295 once bouncing back to $1.299 ahead of the release of the UK’s public finance text.

With UK public sector net borrowing being higher than surmised in June, the pound may fail to climb back above $1.300 rather than the weekend.

UK public sector net borrowing came in at 6.3b in June, down from an upwardly revised 6.4b in May but significantly tall than the 4.2b figure forecast by economists.

We don’t hunger to have no deal

Liam Fox

Despite this, after the report was promulgated the pound clung to modest gains against the euro and US dollar and remained extreme against the Australian dollar after rebounding from a 3 ½ year low.

While GBP/USD has not staged well over the last five days, slumping from highs of $1.311, the yoke could jump next week.

Yesterday was dismal for the pound in spleen of the UK publishing seemingly robust domestic retail sales figures.

GBP v USDGETTY

GBP/USD has leaped back to $1.299

While the rate of consumer spending rebounded in June, slipshod figures in May and April mean that retail sales for the second shelter as a whole were unimpressive and only just balanced out the slump recorded in the outset quarter.

Sterling was also pressured lower by the latest Brexit developments, with tip offs that the UK could take a hard-line stance in negotiations leading to things that the nation could leave the EU without a trade deal in pad.

UK International Trade Secretary Liam Fox was quoted as saying; «We don’t want to make no deal. We can of course survive with no deal, we have to go into a contract with those on the other side of the table knowing what we contemplate.»

GBP/USD losses were a little limited however as the US dollar was restrained by a heave euro.

The common currency registered significant gains against all the dominating currencies after European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi displayed that the central bank will begin discussing policy tightening in the autumn.

There’s no US text to look out for today, but with the Federal Reserve interest rate firmness looming, speculation about what tone the central bank is likely to accept as ones own may inspire US dollar movement in the days ahead.

Lloyds Bank foretold in a statement: «With no policy change expected in July, the focus for trade ins will be on whether the Fed sends any new signals about its intentions for the rest of the year.

«In recent weeks, the divergence between market desires for interest rates and the comments of the majority of Fed policymakers has widened.

«Markets now put insufficient than a 50 per cent probability on an interest rate hike this year.

«In difference, last month’s latest forecast updates from FOMC sharers still pointed to the likelihood of one further interest rate rise this year, reflected by another three in 2018.»

If the Fed takes a cautious approach and dampens hopes for obtaining costs being revised again in 2017 the US dollar could spill, sending GBP/USD soaring in the process.

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