Don’t write oil’s ‘obituary’, IEA says in long-term demand forecast

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Epidemic oil demand is expected to keep rising over the next two decades, albeit at a steadily slackening pace,      according to a new report released Tuesday by the International Vitality Agency.

«It is far too early to write the obituary of oil, as growth for trucks, aviation, petrochemicals, carrying and aviation keep pushing demand higher,» said Fatih Birol, supervisor director of the Paris-based IEA.

Overall global energy needs are seen succeeding more slowly than in the past, but are still projected to expand by 30 per cent between today and 2040. 

«This is the commensurate of adding another China and India to today’s global demand,» the IEA estimated in its report.

Net exporter

With big gains forecast in its output of shale oil, the Opinion States is expected to become a net oil exporter by the mid-2020s, the IEA said, totaling that the U.S. will account for 80 per cent of the increase in the global oil stockpile to 2025, which will maintain near-term downward pressure on assesses.

Crude has climbed lately to a two-year high around $57 US a barrel in clientele in New York, although it is not seen making much larger gains due to be creating U.S. output.

Along with the expected demand for oil, the IEA said natural gas use is described to increase by 45 per cent to 2040.

The agency also pointed to the future maturation of renewable energy sources, saying that they are expected to catching two-thirds of global investment in power plants through to 2040 as they appropriate for the lowest-cost source of new power generation in many countries.

‘Absurdly cynical’

Climate activists said the IEA report is too negative, but added that it highlights the be in want of for more action to combat climate change.

Greenpeace energy analyst Lauri Myllyvirta utter the report is «absurdly pessimistic about renewables,» adding that correspond to forecasts have proven wrong in the past.

Myllyvirta said foreign targets to curb global warming and reduce deaths from air blighting nevertheless require a greater commitment to renewable energy sources.

Tone down the use of fossil fuels is a key demand from activists and many governments intriguing part in the global climate talks in Bonn, Germany, this week.

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