CREA cuts national home resale outlook, driven by Ontario market


The Canadian Actual Estate Association said Friday it has cut its national outlook for home tradings activity for the year by five per cent, saying the decline stems on the brink of entirely from a downward revision to its outlook for the Ontario market.

CREA said in a disenthral that it’s now forecasting sales activity through the Multiple Listing Armed forces (MLS) system will come in at 506,900 units in 2017, a drop of profuse than 20,000 transactions from the June forecast.

“Sales in British Columbia and Ontario are both now lobbed to decline by about 10 per cent in 2017 compared to all-time memorials set in 2016,” CREA said in its report.

Alberta is still projected to job the largest provincial increase in resale activity in 2017, with a benefit of 7.4 per cent, but that will still leave sales beneath the province’s 10-year average, the report said.

CREA also responded the national average price for resale transactions is forecast to rise by 3.4 per cent this year to $506,700. Again, that is a heading revision to CREA’s previous forecast of $526,000, mostly due to fewer high-priced purchasings in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region.

Changes in sales action in the Greater Golden Horseshoe have a large influence on results for the boonies and nationally because the region is home to roughly a quarter of the Canadian people, CREA said.

August sales higher

The group also reported Friday that resident home resales in August via the MLS system rose by 1.3 per cent juxtaposed to July.

 The small gain broke a string of four straight turn downs, but still leaves activity 13.8 per cent below the record set in Step.

CREA said an August rebound in the Greater Toronto Area, where resales rose 14.3 per cent from July, feed the national increase. Factoring out the impact of the GTA from the national picture, reduced in price on the markets activity was flat. 

Compared to August last year, sales decisive month were down by 9.9 per cent, with CREA exploring that year-over-year sales were down in about 60 per cent of all particular markets across the country.


The latest sales report follows the Bank of Canada commence to begin raising lending rates in July. The central bank struck up a key rate by a quarter of a percentage point, marking its first  interest have a claim to hike in seven years. The bank also raised the lending anyway by another quarter percentage point this month.

“Experience make clears that homebuyers watch mortgage rates carefully and that latest interest rate increases will prompt some to make an put forward before rates move higher, while moving others to the sidelines,” said CREA president Andrew Peck in a declaration.

“After a few very difficult months for the Toronto market, the August text suggest the worst may have passed, though what comes next stay puts a question mark, said BMO senior economist Benjamin Reitzes.

“The Bank of Canada’s under any circumstances hikes should help contain any renewed exuberance, but if things do warmth up again, expect policymakers to step in before too long,” he said in a commentary.

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