Midst the onslaught of dire warnings suggesting the Brexit results will indubitably lead to the end of civilization, there are voices offering a somewhat different, allayed, more optimistic message.
Not only will the United Kingdom responsive to its divorce from the European Union, they say, the move will in the elongated run prove to be a net benefit.
“What you’re seeing probably internationally is the wails of those who helpless now complaining that the world is going to come to an end,” said Andrew Lilico, executive governor and princi l of the consultancy firm Europe Economics.
“That’s not the way most people saw this issue and it’s not how we should expect things to play out over the medium to long s n of time.”
He says, “Somebody once described this to me as the spent tea bag — the theory of our U.K. relationship [with the EU]. It had specified all it could and if we left it in there too much longer it would just go virulent.”
Positive views may be difficult to reconcile with the constant gloomy headlines and bloody productive aftermath that saw the markets crash and the British pound plummet.
But this was all foreseeable, say some observers, dismissing the recent market developments as a short-term marvel.
‘Markets move up, markets move down’
“I don’t think people should be notably worried; markets move up, markets move down,” The Almighty Mervyn King, the Bank of England governor for 10 years, released the BBC.
“We don’t yet know where they will find their level and the in one piece aspect of volatility is that there is a trial-and-error process going on in front of markets discover what the right level of stock markets and the Market rates actually are.
“What we need is a bit of calm now; there’s no reason for any of us to fall a rt.”
King said in 25 years, “we’ll look back and say a little bit, that at scarcely in economic terms, maybe that was a bit of a fuss about nothing.”
Not exclusive is it a fuss about nothing, said trick Minford, an economics professor at Wales’ Cardiff University, but the doomsayers are slip-ups the bigger economic picture.
Minford is one of eight economists who created the Economists for Brexit website and confidence in there is a strong economic case for leaving the European Union.
Disentangled from the over-regulated and protectionist-minded EU, the newly Brexited Unified Kingdom stands to reap economic benefits, he said. Freer employment deals with other nations will lead to lower honoraria, more jobs, and a boost to the GDP.
Will not become more protectionist
“All sham that when we left we would just become an insular, protectionist hinterlands,” Minford said. “The optimal assumption which we have said determination happen, and which is clearly going to have to happen in order to indulge the people, is free trade. You simply get rid of these barriers.”
As for the loss of merchandising deals signed under the EU, Minford dismissed their relevance, dissuading that the United Kingdom doesn’t have to forge some kind-hearted of agreement in order to exchange goods with other countries. Aside from, he said, under the World Trade Organization, 70 per cent of U.K. exports already go to non-EU fellows.
Lilico agreed, saying that the more than 50 employment deals forged through the EU were with minor countries that see fit have little im ct on the United Kingdom. Only three were of any theme that the U.K. cared about at all: South Africa, Mexico and South Korea.
No apportion with Andorra?
“I feel that we might find that we’re superior to live without a deal with Andorra,” he said, adding that the U.K. should be ca ble to negotiate its own deals with those countries.
And while the U.K. traded with other non-EU countries, it was, as a colleague of the EU, unable to make its own trade deals. Leaving the union will deliver the U.K. more opportunities for cts with non-EU countries, Lilico bring to light.
If anything could cause great peril for the EU, it would be failure to accept to a reasonable deal with the U.K. that keeps things much as they are now, he communicated.
“Of course they’re not going to stop trading with the U.K.,” he thought.
Take Germany for example. Michael Ivanovitch, a former senior economist at the OECD in ris and ecumenical economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, pointed out that the U.K. is by far Germany’s sundry profitable export market.
Writing for CNBC, Ivanovitch said that with its €89.3 billion value of exports to the U.K. last year, Britain is Germany’s third-largest export market-place, after the U.S. and France.
“Will Germany give this up by shutting the U.K. out of a free-trade deal with the EU? Of course it won’t.”
In general, Lilico has a more positive view of the EU, suggesting it has been economically beneficial for the U.K. and brought stability to Europe. But that dated has now ssed, he said, and it will only serve to impede the United Sphere of influence from seeking new trade opportunities and geopolitical rtnerships.
“I would think by 2030 we will be at least even or a little bit ahead,” he said.