Autumn Statement: Workers' pay growth prospects dreadful, says IFS


The prospect for wages is “dreadful” with the squeeze on y lasting for more than 10 years, affluent economists have said.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said proletarians would earn less in real wages in 2021 than they did in 2008.

Other study shows the biggest losers between now and 2020 will be lower proceeds families, with the poorest third likely to see incomes drop.

Chancellor Philip Hammond utter millions of new jobs had been created.

Defending his Autumn Statement formulae, the chancellor told Radio 4’s Today programme that the government had accomplished job growth. It was investing for the future, pre ring for a “rainy day”, and government borrowing was on a “spiralling th”, he added.

In its analysis of the Autumn Statement, the independent think tank, the IFS, believed workers would earn less in real wages in 2021 than they did in 2008.

“This has, for unfailing, been the worst decade for living standards certainly since the newest war and probably since the 1920s,” said ul Johnson, director of the IFS.

“We own seen no increase in average incomes so far and it does not look like we are succeeding to get much of an increase over the next four or five years either.”

The “prospect for living standards and for the public finances has deteriorated pretty sharply over the last nine months”, he added.

Real average earnings – which influence in the rising cost of living – were forecast to rise by less than 5% between now and 2021. That prognosis is 3.7% lower than was projected in March.

“Half of the wage evolvement projected for the next five years back in March is not now projected to cook. On these projections real wages will, remarkably, still be farther down their 2008 levels in 2021,” Mr Johnson said.

“One cannot lay stress enough how dreadful that is – more than a decade without legitimate earnings growth. We have certainly not seen a period remotely homologous to it in the last 70 years.”

The biggest im ct on income in recent years, mutual understanding to the IFS, has been felt by younger workers. Those aged 60 and st, in contrast, have seen living standards rise.

The squeeze on physical standards could be worse during this rliament than between 2010 and 2015, mentions the Resolution Foundation think tank. which cam igns for people on low and mesial incomes.

Lower growth in y, an accelerating rise in the cost of living, and happiness changes such as a freeze on working age benefits all combined to show that revenues on average would only grow by 0.2% a year, it said.

This weighs to a rise of 0.5% during the coalition government years – a period of austerity in the aftermath of the economic crisis.

“Taking all this together we can look at the outlook for family returns in the coming years, and it ints a grim picture,” the think tank signified.

Significantly, given the government’s focus on “just about managing” offsprings, the data shows that lower income families will be worse off.

The Fundamental said the poorest 10% would see an income hit of more than 3% by 2020 as a end result of tax and welfare policies.

“While top earners were hit the hardest following the fiscal crisis, the big difference looking forward is that the biggest losers are reduce income families, with the entire bottom third of the income assignment set to see incomes fall in the years ahead,” the Foundation said.

The Treasury’s own dissection, published alongside the Autumn Statement, shows that the poorest 30% of households resolution see a negative im ct on incomes from tax, welfare and public spending proposals by 2019-20.

Primarily, this is a result of the main working age benefits and tax commendations being frozen in cash terms for four years from April 2016. That includes entitlements such as jobseeker’s consideration and income support.

That income freeze is forecast to coincide with an acceleration in inflation, advertising up the cost of living.

The chancellor offered some help to the lowest be advantageous with changes to Universal Credit – the new umbrella benefit gradually being acquainted across the UK.

Mr Hammond announced a reduction in the rate at which the benefit is isolated from people when they start work.

The Resolution Setting up report said this would have relatively little impression on family finances.

“When set against all other policy changes propounded since the 2015 election, the Autumn Statement only undoes 7% of the hit from improve cuts to the bottom half of the income distribution,” it said.

Middle-income divisions will see some rises in income, but by no more than 1%, the Bank documents show. The richest 10% will see the biggest hit to incomes.

More broadly, the IFS asserted that the OBR had forecast that national income in 2020-21 would be £30bn reduce than projected in March – the equivalent to £1,000 per household.

Among Mr Hammond’s bulletins were:

  • Reducing the rate at which benefits are withdrawn from people when they start contrive
  • Banning upfront fees imposed by lettings agents in England
  • A be generated in insurance premium tax which is expected to increase the cost of policies
  • Further the National Living Wage to £7.50 an hour from April 2017
  • Staff member perks to lose tax relief
  • New spending on housing projects totalling £3.7bn in England
  • Counteracting the fuel duty increase for the seventh year running
  • £60m a year for grammar view ex nsion

The IFS said that Mr Hammond had clearly put whatever money he had into long-term arrangements.

“The clear prioritisation by Mr Hammond to direct most of what largesse he take oneself to be sym thize able to afford to ying for additional investment spending – roads, lodgings, research and development – to support the economy in the long run, rather than to y to prop the incomes of the “just-about-managing”, or indeed public services, in the short run,” Mr Johnson swayed.

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