After 2016, a year of ups and downs for the Canadian husbandry, there’s a growing body of evidence suggesting 2017 will be a outstrip year.
Here are 5 big reasons the economy could do a lot better than you authority think this year.
The job market is recovering
It may be cold comfort to anyone motionlessly looking for work, but Canada’s job market ended 2016 on a bit of a tear, summing more than 200,000 jobs from August onwards. There were numberless than 50,000 new jobs in December alone.
On the whole, there were assorted part-time jobs created in 2016 than full-time ones, but one big bank economist turns it may be time to give up the notion that such jobs are somehow diminutive desirable.
“The consensus has been far too bearish on Canadian job growth for months now,” Scotiabank economist Derek Holt thinks. “Yes, last year was the year of the part-time employee, but guess what — the workforce has been transmuting for years and not everyone wants the alarm clock buzzing at 4:30 a.m. every day.”
It’s again good to take volatile monthly figures with a grain of cautiously. But even ignoring the positive headline figures, the latest numbers indicate that wages are up, and so is the percentage of working-age adults who are choosing to be in the labour significance in effect. That’s good news no matter how you slice it.
“The job data is the first within reach for taking stock of 2016,” Desjardins economist Joëlle Noreau try to says, “and the data is good.”
Oil could be headed higher — finally
Canada’s thriftiness is intrinsically linked to the price of oil, which is a big part of what made 2015 and 2016 such a knobby ride. From a high of over $100 US a barrel in late 2014, oil bottomed out at below $30 US a barrel last year, wiping out billions from the property market — not to mention tens of thousands of oilpatch jobs in the process.
But continuously since last fall, crude has been on a steady, albeit sleepy, march higher, up $10 a barrel in the past month. The main convince is that the byzantine oil cartel known as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Provinces (OPEC) lurched back to life with a pledge to start form off the spigots to get prices back to a level member countries are more complacent with.
That move might actually be working.
Saudi Arabia has been bail out out 486,000 fewer barrels a day since October, and more and more hinterlands are following suit. While OPEC nations compete with Canadian oil institutions for market share, the latter are the unwitting beneficiaries of their rivals’ conduct.
If OPEC’s gambit works, 2017 could be much better for oil costs — and Canada’s economy by association.
The loonie could be headed higher, too
It’s not acrimonious to come up with arguments explaining why the Canadian dollar could be in for a smutty 2017. Here are two arguments we’ve brought you in the past two months alone:
While those forecasts pacific hold up, at least one expert says those predictions are far too bleak — and he has a persuasive track record of being right.
He may not be a household name, but Konrad Bialas, chief economist at foreign-exchange stockbroker Dom Maklerski in Warsaw, is the top-ranked forecaster when it comes to the Canadian dollar, be consistent to Bloomberg’s accuracy gauge.
Bialas opportunities the doom and gloom around the loonie is misguided, as Canada’s economy has been wholly the eye of the storm and is poised to grow. Believe it or not, the loonie was one of the best performing pre-eminent currencies in the world last year, trouncing the yen, the franc, the euro and the maul.
“The beginning of the year could be difficult for the Canadian dollar, but we’re expecting the rage to start slowing down,” Bialas told Bloomberg this week, indicating the loonie could end the year even higher than it is now, hovering approximately the 75-cent level.
“The Canadian economy will feel the positive intents of an acceleration of growth worldwide and the risks to trade with the U.S. — the worries outstanding tearing down NAFTA — will drop,” he said.
Trade is picking up
There’s generous evidence that the trade winds are blowing, too. On Friday, Statistics Canada reported that Canada wobbled to a trade surplus for the first time in two years in November, as the economy exported $526 million assorted than it imported that month.
Everything from energy products, to potash, aerospace parts and canola was progress, an encouraging sign of broad and diverse strength.
“That is more reassuring and suggests that, following the dip … in October, the economy liked a decent rebound in November,” economist Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics said.
The TSX is hairbreadth an all-time high
In the markets, the TSX came within a few points of its all-time superior of 15,685 points this week, set back in September 2014 — ahead oil’s decline waylaid the market.
As economic indicators go, the TSX is far from perfect. But an all-time piercing for a country’s dominant stock index is the sort of thing that tends to devise attention. Witness the hubbub in the U.S. right now over the Dow Jones, which has been lead oning with passing the 20,000 point level for the first time for far a month now.
The TSX fell just short of its all-time high mark this week, but strategist Colin Cieszynski at CMC Exchanges in Toronto says there’s every reason to think it could out that mark soon.
“Canadian investors should remain cautiously hopeful,” he said in an interview with CBC News this week. “With commodities’ outlays increasing and gold recovering from its big takedown, that should cure resources and create a tailwind,” and blow a little more money into all Canadian investors’ pockets.
Inasmuch as the slew of positive financial news, a surging TSX seems downright tenable.
As BMO’s Doug Porter put it this week, “this run of sturdy figures attend to arrange for a nice antidote to a sour end to last year’s data.”